It feels eerily similar to the last major tariff-driven PC surge. According to IDC, preliminary global PC shipments grew 9.6 percent year over year in the fourth quarter, reaching 76.4 million units. But that growth is somewhat artificial: many of those systems were built and shipped before the worsening memory shortage and any additional tariff pressures could fully take hold.
IDC observed a similar pattern a year ago, when PC vendors rushed inventory into retail channels ahead of anticipated tariffs under the Trump administration. That early push, combined with the lingering effects of the Windows 10 upgrade cycle, temporarily boosted sales figures. The current situation echoes that behavior, with manufacturers once again front-loading shipments to stay ahead of looming supply and cost constraints.
“IDC expects that the PC market will be far different in 12 months given how quickly the memory situation is evolving,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice president at IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. He warned that beyond rising system prices—already announced by some manufacturers—PC makers may begin lowering average memory configurations simply to conserve limited supply. According to IDC, the year ahead is shaping up to be unusually volatile for the industry.
Unlike tariffs, which primarily constrained U.S. PC growth, memory shortages are a global problem. IDC data from 2025 showed U.S. PC growth at just 4 percent, compared to 14 percent across Europe and the Middle East. “Memory shortages are affecting the entire industry, and the impact will likely reshape market dynamics over the next two years,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager at IDC. Larger brands with stronger purchasing power are expected to gain market share, while smaller and regional vendors may struggle to survive. IDC also reiterated its expectation that average PC prices will rise in 2026, with manufacturers increasingly pushing mid-range and premium systems to protect margins. Lenovo led shipments in 2025 with 70.8 million PCs sold, followed by HP and Dell.