IDC is warning that PC prices could see a noticeable increase in 2026, with average system prices potentially rising by as much as 8 percent due to an expected global shortage of memory components, including both RAM and NAND. According to the research firm, the core issue is not a sudden surge in consumer PC demand, but rather a structural shift in memory production priorities across the industry, as manufacturers increasingly focus on higher-margin products aimed at the AI sector.
The shortage is being driven primarily by the explosive demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is heavily used in AI data centers and accelerators. Memory makers are prioritizing HBM production because it delivers significantly better profitability compared to traditional consumer-grade DRAM and NAND used in PCs and smartphones. As a result, supply for mainstream memory products is expected to tighten, pushing component costs higher across the PC ecosystem.
Beyond pricing, IDC also expects the memory crunch to weigh on overall PC shipments. The firm forecasts that the global PC market could contract by between 2.4 percent and 8.9 percent in 2026, as higher system prices dampen demand and limit availability, particularly in cost-sensitive segments. The timing is especially challenging, as the shortage is set to coincide with the Windows 10 end-of-life refresh cycle and the industry-wide push to promote so-called AI PCs, creating what IDC describes as a “perfect storm” for the PC market.
Major PC manufacturers are already preparing customers for tougher conditions. Companies including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and ASUS have reportedly signaled broad price increases heading into the second half of 2026, with warnings of 15–20 percent hikes and contract resets becoming more common. Meanwhile, smaller white-box and lower-tier vendors are expected to suffer the most, especially those serving the DIY and gaming communities. This dynamic could ultimately benefit large OEMs, which may gain market share by positioning pre-built gaming systems as better-value alternatives during a period of constrained component supply.